#ANALYSIS—#UKRAINE—#RUSSIA—27 Tweets
Most important statements of #Russia|n military campaign were made on the battlefield and will continue to be made there, not by the diplomats, like #Medinsky, or even hawks, like #Kadyrov. They will continue to be made by the military. 1/27
Most important statements of #Russia|n military campaign were made on the battlefield and will continue to be made there, not by the diplomats, like #Medinsky, or even hawks, like #Kadyrov. They will continue to be made by the military. 1/27
If we consider military realities of the conflict, from its outset, without distractions in form of political statements or personal wishes, the following emerges: #Russia entered into this conflict with—at the most optimistic count—a military grouping of no more than 190k. 2/27
This was considerably less than the combined armed forces of #Ukraine, which outnumbered the #RF forces by as much as 100k at the outset of the conflict. To date, as a result of the campaign, #Ukraine|ian forces outside of #Donbass have been reduced to an infantry force. 3/27
Gone is the vast bulk of #Ukraine’s armoured vehicle arsenal. As of March 27, 529 tanks and 1177 armoured vehicles (IFVs and APCs) had been destroyed. Gone are #UA’s airforce and navy. The personnel losses of UA forces are estimated at over 16k KIA and 14k WIA. 4/27
#Ukraine’s air defence apparatus has equally been turned to rubble. Over 160 command & communications/radar installations have been destroyed. Over 160 long range and over 40 short range air defence vehicles have been eliminated. #Russia|n airforce flies sorties unimpeded. 5/27
#Ukraine continues to possess a sizeable MLRS and artillery force, which is protected by the human shield of the cities’ residential areas, where its elimination is problematic in view of #Russia’s announced (and strictly adhered to) policy of minimizing civilian casualties. 6/27
Severe shortage of operational armoured vehicles is indirectly indicated by #Zelensky’s appeal to #NATO countries to donate 1% of their tanks to #Ukraine’s war effort and visible in failed raids from #Nikolayev to #Kherson to shell civilians under guise of fighting #Russia. 7/27
There is not a single indication of significant armoured assaults or counterattacks and #Ukraine’s failed raids from #Nikolayev were characterized by the presence of unprotected MLRS and artillery units contrasted against glaring absence of adequate armoured vehicle support. 8/27
Overall, #Ukraine’s army has been almost completely immobilized—in the east, in #Donbass, due to fear and inability to abandon reinforced positions in the face of #Russia|n air dominance and surging offensives to the north and to the south, as the cauldron is closing shut. 9/27
In the south, due to the overwhelming success of #Russia|n offensive that pushed #Ukraine|ian resistance into interior, away from border with #Crimea. In the north, due to #RF forces threatening each of the major cities, blockading them, and shutting #Ukraine|ian forces in. 10/27
It is becoming clear that, from the beginning, two possible scenarios were foreseen by #Russia|n military command: The success of the initial surprise blitzkrieg and the drawn-out methodical elimination of the #Ukraine|ian military capabilities. Both scenarios materialized. 11/27
In the south, in #Kherson and parts of #Zaporozhye regions, the rapid surge of #Russia|n forces from #Crimea (admittedly, the best equipped and prepared) succeeded almost entirely, until #Ukraine|ian resistance was localized north of #Kherson, in #Nikolayev and #Zaporozhye. 11/27
In the north, as stated earlier, #Russia|n forces flowed around major cities, effectively cutting off #Sumy, #Akhtyrka, & #Chernigov and shutting defending #Ukraine|ian forces in them. Near #Kiev, #Russia identified its presence and presented a real threat of encircling it. 12/27
Clear & present threat of complete encirclement and blockade of #Ukraine|ian capital was created with insufficient (according to military doctrine) forces to surround a city of 4 million, where, even now, over 2 million civilians remain. And yet, #Ukraine could do nothing. 13/27
Near #Kharkov, once again, a group of units clearly insufficient to completely encircle the city, was able to take it into a horseshoe formation, bind and pin the defenders of the city, preventing any adventurism from them in terms of assisting the #Donbass #UA forces. 14/27
#Russia|n army flowed around #Kharkov, cutting it off from #Ukraine’s #Donbass group by taking #Izyum, and proceeded into a difficult offensive south, to cut off the #Slavyansk/#Kramatorsk group’s supply and communications with #UA’s interior and to complete the cauldron. 15/27
What succeeded in the south, in #Kherson and parts of #Zaporozhye regions was rapid blitzkrieg. What materialized in the north was the binding & pinning of #Ukraine’s army & creating constant threats that made it impossible for #UA to redirect forces to assist in #Donbass. 16/27
What is taking place in #Mariupol, #Maryinka, #Avdeevka, and south of #Izyum, as well as #Rubezhnoye/#Severodonetsk/#Lisichansk—and what took place earlier in #Volnovakha—is the methodical grinding down & elimination of #Ukraine’s best equipped and battle-hardened forces. 17/27
Completion of #Donbass cauldron is now near at hand, and fighting is becoming increasingly more fierce and brutal. Even originally #Russia|n forces were severely outnumbered in #Ukraine, and it has become clear now that a decision has been made to limit their numbers. 18/27
As indicated by the majority of military analysts covering the conflict, operations in the north & the south were part of 1st phase of the campaign intended to create operational freedom for #Russia|n forces to complete the #Donbass cauldron (after #Mariupol’s liberation) 19/27
With this task now closer to completion, and #UA resistance increasing exponentially as the cauldron is closing shut, 2nd phase of campaign no longer requires (nor can afford, in view of the lack of numerical advantage) such extensive operations in the north and the south. 20/27
#Russia has created reinforced positions near #Kiev, #Chernigov, Sumy, and #Kharkov in the north, which can now be defended with fewer forces and still present clear and present danger pinning the defenders in these cities. The south (#Kherson) is even better defended. 21/27
#Mariupol’s liberation is close to completion. These forces, with invaluable experience fighting some of #Ukraine’s best in possibly most difficult conditions since #Stalingrad, will be freed up to focus on #Donbass cauldron where #Ukraine’s biggest group will be trapped. 22/27
Similarly, troops no longer necessary in the north & the south, where fewer units will be sufficient for maintaining the status quo during the 2nd phase of the operation, will be transferred to the #Donbass theatre. Finally, reserves have been built up in #RF for rotation. 23/27
The reserves in #RF (larger than all #Russia|n troops currently in #UA) have been remarked on by #Ukraine|ian & Western sources & are entirely counter to any idea that operation in #Ukraine is being limited, let alone coming to an end. Simply, 2nd phase is about to start. 24/27
#Russia was unwilling to commit overwhelming forces to operation in #Ukraine from the beginning. This is an exceedingly lean, and, its leanness, exceedingly successful operation. The 2nd phase will involve the elimination of the #Donbass cauldron of #Ukraine|ian forces. 25/27
The clear hope of #RF command is that success on this front will spell the final collapse of the #Ukraine|ian military machine, with cascades effects on the rest of UA defenders, just as the economy of the country continues to crumble from the overwhelming pressure on it. 26/27
In war, there is no guarantee, except one: Do not watch the ball of negotiations being passed back & forth, watch military operations on the ground. Even #Medinsky said today that de-escalation near #Kiev does not mean the termination of the operations. Quite the contrary. 27/27
What happens in the 3rd phase of the operation is really only up to the #Russia|n military and political command and to #Ukraine|ian regime's resolve to continue fighting to the last Ukrainian. Let's hope it does not come to that. But I see no chance of #Russia pulling back now.
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